According to Glassnode, a blockchain data analytics platform, there has been a sudden shift in the way Bitcoin holders are investing, with coins moving from long-term holders to a new group of buyers. This change in hodl patterns, which has been seen in previous cycles, could indicate a significant change in market sentiment, suggesting a cycle inflection point may be happening.
Despite the recent negative news, including the CFTC targeting Binance and fake Interpol news, Bitcoin prices have recovered and stabilized, although the market remains in consolidation.
Glassnode introduced a new metric called RHODL on April 3. RHODL measures the wealth held by long-term holders (6 months to 2 years) in comparison to the youngest short-term holders (1 day to 3 months) to track the shift in hodling patterns. The current declining structure indicates a transfer of BTC from long-term holders to short-term holders, which has been accelerating since the collapse of FTX. This shift in cycle patterns suggests a potential turning point in the market sentiment.
The firm also analyzed the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which measures the aggregate unrealized profit multiple held within the coin supply.
Currently, the MVRV ratio is at 1.4, indicating a recovery phase. In addition, the Accumulation Trend Score suggests that markets are transitioning into a recovery phase. The Illiquid Supply Net Position Change metric was also used to measure the net flow of coins to and from wallets with no spending history.
This metric shows an increase of 36,600 BTC per month, indicating increasing confidence in the asset. Despite regulatory pressure, these metrics provide evidence of continued market sentiment and confidence in BTC.
Bitcoin's Price Performance and Fear-Greed Index
As of writing this, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 2.7%, reaching $28,629. This brings it back to its weekly high, despite facing negative news and regulatory pressure.
Additionally, the fear-greed index for Bitcoin has shifted towards greed, which could indicate an upcoming correction.
Bitcoin has experienced a 28% increase in the past month but remained 58.5% below its record high of $69,000 in November 2021.
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Source:
https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-hodl-patterns-indicate-cycle-shift-to-bull-market/
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